Où l’on s’interroge sur les limites d’un modèle encore trop opaque sur ces performances pour rassurer les investisseurs
Those two series are apt symbols for the billions of dollars being poured into direct-to-consumer content (“Stranger Things” season 4 cost $30 million per episode, the Wall Street Journal reported in April), costs investors are viewing with ever-increasing scrutiny as they demand proof that streaming services can be profitable.
Indeed, Disney stock fell after its most recent earnings call, despite the better-than-expected addition of 8 million Disney+ subscribers — a sure sign that the market is not rewarding this growth the way it used to.
As the streaming business evolves, then, series will have to start justifying their expenses by visibly contributing to their services’ profitability. To do that, answers will need to be given to a lot of long-unanswered questions: How much of the show’s viewing time came from new subscribers? How many of those subscribers previously canceled and then resubscribed? How have old episodes of the show performed among new customers over time — which is to say, how much drawing power does the show really have? How often do existing subscribers rewatch a show? And what is the return on investment in terms of money spent on a series versus the financial value it generates for the service?
But this data begs the question of how many “Star Wars” fans are left for Disney to scoop up. Are there really a significant number of franchise devotees who haven’t signed up for Disney+ already? It’s possible that viewers who have churned out will return for “Obi-Wan,” but that lift will be temporary. How much revenue is the show really going to generate for the streamer, particularly with what must have been a blockbuster-sized budget?
It may be delusional to think that any company would provide all this information, when giving a more limited picture has served streamers so well for so long. But both Netflix and Disney+ are going to find themselves accountable to advertisers in the near future, which will likely require a lot more disclosure. And the piecemeal information streamers provide is going to start hurting them soon, if it hasn’t already. If this business is going to prove itself sustainable, the market will need a much better picture of how it actually works.